Macro calendar

US economic data and Fed rate meetings — times when Bitcoin and altcoins often move sharply. US data is usually released around 19:30–21:00 (UTC+7).

What will the Fed do with rates?

Probabilities priced by the futures market (like the FedWatch tool), per SoSoValue data. Current target range: 3.75–4.00% (SOFR 3.9%, Fed New York). Fed công bố quyết định khoảng 1:00 sáng hôm sau, giờ Việt Nam.

Meeting	Most likely	CutCut	HoldHold	HikeHike
12/09/26	4.00–4.25% (88.5%)	0.0%	0.0%	100.0%
01/27/27	4.25–4.50% (68.1%)	0.0%	0.0%	100.1%
03/17/27	4.50–4.75% (49.9%)	0.0%	0.0%	99.9%
04/28/27	4.50–4.75% (45.2%)	0.0%	0.0%	99.8%
06/09/27	4.50–4.75% (37.5%)	0.0%	0.0%	100.1%
07/28/27	4.50–4.75% (34.4%)	0.0%	0.0%	99.9%

Rate cuts are usually good for crypto (cheaper money, more risk appetite); hikes are the opposite.

Upcoming

Tuesday, 11/17/2026

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Retail sales (month over month) Forecast 0% · Previous 0.8%

Wednesday, 11/18/2026

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Initial jobless claims

Sunday, 11/22/2026

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S&P Global services PMI
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S&P Global manufacturing PMI

Tuesday, 11/24/2026

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Core PCE inflation (month over month)
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Core PCE inflation (year over year) — the Fed's favorite gauge
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GDP growth (quarterly, annualized)
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New Home Sales

Wednesday, 12/09/2026

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Fed meeting and rate decision (FOMC)Result around 1:00 the next day (UTC+7), followed by the Fed Chair's press conference.

Wednesday, 01/27/2027

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Fed meeting and rate decision (FOMC)Result around 1:00 the next day (UTC+7), followed by the Fed Chair's press conference.

Wednesday, 03/17/2027

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Fed meeting and rate decision (FOMC)Result around 1:00 the next day (UTC+7), followed by the Fed Chair's press conference.

Recently released

Friday, 11/13/2026

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PPI producer prices (month over month) Actual 0.3% · Forecast 0.4% · Previous 1.3%Below forecast — good for crypto

Thursday, 11/12/2026

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Initial jobless claims Actual 200 · Forecast 194 · Previous 189Above forecast
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Existing home sales (millions / year) Actual 3.75 · Forecast 3.89 · Previous 3.99Below forecast

Tuesday, 11/10/2026

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CPI inflation (month over month) Actual 0.4% · Forecast 0.3% · Previous 0.6%Above forecast — bad for crypto
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CPI inflation (year over year) Forecast 3.9% · Previous 3.7%
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Core CPI (month over month) Actual 0.3% · Forecast 0.2% · Previous 0.3%Above forecast — bad for crypto

Friday, 11/06/2026

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Nonfarm payrolls (thousands) Actual 165 · Forecast 65 · Previous 29Above forecast

Thursday, 11/05/2026

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Unemployment rate
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Initial jobless claims Actual 189 · Forecast 197 · Previous 194Below forecast

Wednesday, 11/04/2026

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ISM services PMI (above 50 = expansion) Actual 54.5 · Forecast 54.8 · Previous 54.9Below forecast
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ADP Nonfarm Employment Change Actual 86 · Forecast 67 · Previous 90Above forecast
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S&P Global services PMI Actual 56.1 · Forecast 57.9 · Previous 58.8Below forecast

Tuesday, 11/03/2026

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S&P Global manufacturing PMI Forecast 56 · Previous 54.9

Monday, 11/02/2026

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S&P Global manufacturing PMI Actual 54.9 · Forecast 56 · Previous 55.9Below forecast

Sunday, 11/01/2026

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ISM manufacturing PMI (above 50 = expansion)

Thursday, 10/29/2026

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Core PCE inflation (month over month) Actual 0.3% · Forecast 0.3% · Previous 0.2%In line with forecast
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Core PCE inflation (year over year) — the Fed's favorite gauge Actual 3.1% · Forecast 3.1% · Previous 3%In line with forecast
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Initial jobless claims Actual 194 · Forecast 198 · Previous 194Below forecast

●●● very important · ●●○ important · ●○○ minor. Inflation above forecast usually makes Fed cuts less likely → bad for crypto; other data depends on context. Source: SoSoValue. Not investment advice. How do Fed rates affect crypto? →